Long term trend analysis of rainfall at heavy rainfall zone of South Gujarat, India
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.53550/Keywords:
Drought, Mann-Kendall test, Sen's slope, Trend analysisAbstract
The study of precipitation trends is critically important for a country like India whose food security and economy are dependent on the felicitous availability of water. Present study was carried out using monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall data of 112 years (1901-2012) for Navsari and Bharuch districts of heavy rainfall zone of south Gujarat. The long term changes in rainfall were determined by Mann- Kendall rank statistics and linear trend analysis. The annual rainfall at Navsari -1 illustrated significantly increasing trend (+ 2.72 mm yr ), while decreasing trend in -1 rainfall was observed at Bharuch location (- 0.36 mm yr ). This, also reflected into -1 -1 their decadal analysis i.e. + 29.22 mm decade at Navsari, while -7.61 mm decade at Bharuch. During pre-monsoon, post-monsoon and winter season, rainfall showed decreasing trend over both locations. The increasing trend of monsoonal rainfall was observed at Navsari and decreasing trend was found at Bharuch. The long term data analysis divulged that at Bharuch station wider variability rainfall was observed as compared to Navsari.
References
Antonia, L. and Paolo, V. 2010. Trend analysis of annual and seasonal rainfall time series in Mediterranean area. Int. J. Climatol., 30(10): 1538-1546.
Bhalme, H.N. and Mooley, D.A. 1980. Large scale droughts/floods and monsoon circulation. Mon. Wealth Rev., 108(8): 1197-1211.
Dash, S.K., Jenamani, R.K., Kalsi, S.R. and Panda, S.K. 2007. Some evidence of climate change in twentieth-century India. Climatic Change, 85: 299-321.
Dore, M.H.I. 2005. Climate change and changes in global precipitation patterns: What do we know? Environment Int., 31:1167-1181.
Goswami, B.N., Venugopal, V., Sengupta, D., Madhusoodanam, M.S. and Xavier, P.K. 2006. Increasing trends of extreme rain events over India in a warming environment. Science, 314: 1442-1445.
Gregory, S. and Parthasrathy, B. 1986. Extreme monsoon rainfall deficits in India. Theo. Appl. Climatol., 37:194-204.
Guhathakurta, P. and Rajeevan, M. 2007. Trends in the rainfall pattern over India. Int. J. Climatol., 28(11):1453-1469.
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2007. Summary for policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (ed. by S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller). Cambridge University Press, UK.
Jain, S.K., Vijay, K. and Sahraia, M. 2012. Analysis of rainfall and temperature trendsin northeast India. Int. J. Climatol., doi: 10.1002/joc.3483.
Kendall, M.G. 1975. Rank correlation methods. London: Charles Griffin. Khan, T.M.A., Singh, O.P. and Sazedur Rahman, M.D. 2000. Recent sea level and sea surface temperature trends along the Bangladesh coast in relation to the frequency of intense cyclones. Marine Geodesy, 23: 103-116.
Krishnakumar, K.N., Prasada Rao, G.S.L.H.V. and Gopakumar, C.S. 2009. Rainfall trends in twentieth century over Kerala. India. Atmos. Environ., 43:1940-1944.
Lal, M. 2003. Global climate change: India's monsoon and its variability. J. Environ. Studies Policy, 6:1-34.
Mandal, D.K., Goswami, S.N., Mandal, C., Prasad, J. and Nirmal K., 2015. Economic loss estimation under rainfall aberration in semi-arid tropics of India. Ind. J. Soil Cons., 43(2): 182-186.
Mann, H.B. 1945. Non-parametric tests against trend. Econometrica, 13:245-259.
Min, S.K., Kwon, W.T., Park, E.H. and Choi, Y. 2003. Spatial and temporal comparisons of droughts over Korea with East Asia. Int. J. Climatol., 23:223-233.
Mirza, M.Q. 2002. GlobalWarming and changes in the probability of occurence of floods in Bangladesh and implications. Global Environ. Chang., 12:127-138.
Morishima, W. and Akasaka, I. 2010. Seasonal trends of rainfall and surface temperature over Southern Africa. African Study Monographs, 40: 67-76.
Narain, P., Rathore, L.S., Singh, R.S. and Rao, A.S. 2006. Drought assessment and management in arid Rajasthan by CAZRI Jodhpur and NCMRWF Noida, 1-29.
Nnyaladzi, B. and Brent, Y. 2010. Rainfall variability and trends in semi-arid Botswana: Implications for climate change adaptation policy. Applied Geography, 30: 483-489.
Pali, A.K., Thakur, H. and Khalkho, D. 2016. Rainfall analysis based rice crop planning in Durg district of Chhattisgarh. Ind. J. Soil Cons., 44(1): 30-36.
Parthasarathy, B. 1984. Inter-annual and long term variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall', Proc. Indian Acad. Sci. Earth Planet. Sci., 93: 371-385.
Rupa, K., Pant G.B., Parthasarathy, B. and Sontakke, N.A. 1992. Spatial and sub-seasonal patterns of the long-term trends of Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Int. J. Climatol., 12: 257-268.
Shrestha, A.B., Wake, C.P., Dibb, J.E. and Mayewski, P.A. 2000. Precipitation fluctuations in the Nepal Himalaya and its vicinity and relationship with some large scale climatological parameters. Int. J. Climatol., 20: 317-327.
Singh, R.P. and Rao, B.V.R. 1998. Agricultural drought management in India (Principles and Practice), Central Research Institute for Dry land Agriculture, Hyderabad: 1-45.
Sinha Ray, K.C. and De, U.S. 2003. Climate change in India as evidenced from instrumental records. Bulletin of the World Meteorological Organization, 52: 53-59.
Sinha Ray, K.C. and Srivastava, A.K. 1999. Is there any change in extreme events like droughts and heavy rainfall? In: INTROPMET-97 (IIT New Delhi, 2-5 December, 1997).
Turkes,̧ M., Sumer, U.M. and Demir, I. 2002. Re-evaluation of trend and changes in mean, maximum and minimum temperatures of Turkey for the peiod 1929-1999. Int. J. Climatol., 22: 947-977.
Vinay K., Jain, S.K. and Singh, Y. 2010. Analysis of long-term rainfall trends in India. Hydrol. Sci. J., 55(4): 484-496.
Wing H.C., Gabriel, B.S. and Singh, A. 2008. Trends and spatial distribution of annual and seasonal rainfall in Ethiopia. Int. J. Climatol., doi: 10.1002/joc1623.
